The Republican Party is the party of "fuck". The Democratic Party should become the party of "shit".
Now hear me out. "Fuck", in its hostile sense, is what the GOP is all about. George W. Bush, March 2002: "Fuck Saddam; we're taking him out." Dick Cheney: "Go fuck yourself." Karl Rove: "We will fuck him like he's never been fucked before." As George Carlin said, it's a word that "we really use to hurt each other with, man. It's a heavy. It's one that you have toward the end of the argument." That last is telling; once you've escalated to "fuck", you're not really negotiating any more. In a common compound form, it's a threat to an enemy in war that underpins the homophobia so common to the right: "fuck you", meaning "I will fuck you", meaning "I will fight you and win and you will be helpless and then I will fuck you to make sure you know how badly you've been defeated." And today, that's basically all the Republican Party stands for: winning at any cost, humiliating and terrorizing the loser. They sure as fuck don't stand for Christian values or fiscal moderation. Hence Abu Ghraib. The central message of the Republican Party: "Get with the program or get fucked." Needless to say, there is no lube in sight.
Now let us turn our attention to John Kerry. In an interview with Rolling Stone, Kerry said "Did I expect George Bush to fuck [Iraq] up as badly as he did? I don't think anybody did." The Bush White House had the nerve to ask for an apology from Senator Kerry. Given the above citations, it would be hard to believe that the President was shocked by Kerry's "fuck"; this was more like a cease-and-desist letter protecting a trademark. "We're the Party of Fuck, Senator, and don't forget it. Don't fuck with us. We'll fuck you like you've never been fucked." The GOP has staked out that territory. The left won't be allowed the use of it.
But there's another perfectly good Anglo-Saxon monosyllable available. And that's "shit". And I think the left needs to embrace the word "shit", starting now.
"Shit" isn't hostile in the way that "fuck" is. Shit is an inevitable fact of life. Recognizing the existence of shit is important - just the ability to recognize shit is important, but some people don't know shit from Shinola. Proper disposal of shit is invaluable. (If the Bush Administration were tasked with maintaining a sewage treatment plant, they would start by denying the existence of shit.) Everyone shits. Not everyone fucks.
We need to start using the word "shit" when it's called for. As in "Mister McClellan, this press briefing is bullshit; can we get some real answers?" As in "our soldiers in Iraq are in the middle of some pretty serious shit." As in "full of shit." As in "cut the shit." Because I'm tired of this shit. America is in deep shit, and we need to get our shit together. Mister President, it's time to shit or get off the pot.
(This posting made possible by the fine work of George Carlin.)
No, not an alternate universe headline - just some yard work.
Sorry Everybody is surprisingly moving.
Here are my predictions as to Bush's second-term accomplishments. Only the bold predictions are to be counted in computing my official accuracy when the time comes; the others are corollaries for additional flavor.
As of November 3, 2008:
- At least 4000 American soldiers will have died in Iraq. Additionally, at least 20,000 wounded. We will still have significant number of troops in Iraq, in harm's way. The United Kingdom will reduce its contingent from their current 8000+ to a token force of under 500, or pull out entirely. The number of Iraqi dead will be uncounted, but nearly all estimates will be over 150,000.
- Over FY2004-2007, the deficit will average at least $500 billion per year. There will be no clear plan from the Administration to reduce the deficit.
- The euro will be trading at at least US$1.50 up from today's all time high of US$1.30. The US economy will be improving overall, but volatile.
- Ten million payroll jobs will be added during the term. Not bad. He needs 7 million or so just to keep up with population growth.
- George W. Bush will have taken at least 400 vacation days total in his two terms of office. He will find it irritating to know that in this, he couldn't manage to outdo his father, who took 543 days off in only one term.
- An attack on US soil by an Islamic terror group will kill at least 100 people. This could be something like the Madrid subway bombings, or a much more ambitious attack which is largely unsuccessful. Bush's approval rating will increase in the two weeks following the attack, despite the fact that the Homeland Security terror alert level will have been at Orange, not Red, at the time of the attack. The target will be selected for maximum loss of life or maximum economic impact, rather than to punish Bush voters - if the attack comes in a red state, the target will be something like a football stadium.
- At least two terrorist attacks on US soil will be conducted by white Americans, killing between zero and ten people. None will remain front page news for long.
- Osama bin Laden will die without being put on trial. Most likely due to natural causes. No serious attempt will be made to capture him.
- North Korea will test a nuclear weapon. Negotiations with NK regarding nukes will continue on and off throughout the term, but any agreements made will be basically ignored.
- Tensions with Iran regarding their nuclear programs will increase, but there will not be a large-scale war. There may be military actions taken against Iranian nuclear sites, but they will not be successful in general.
- There will be no great improvements in the Israel/Palestine situation. Arafat's death will create an opportunity, but Israel will make no concessions and the US will not pressure them to; the 2008 status quo will look very much like today's.
- 87 octane gasoline at the gas station at the intersection of Randall and San Jose Avenue in San Francisco will be at least $2.74/gallon.
- Foreign nationals will still be interned at Guantanamo Bay, uncharged, untried.
- No one will be convicted as a consequence of the Plame investigation. There may be indictments, but probably not even a resignation.
- No NASA program for a manned mission to Mars will be initiated, bitch!
- Dick Cheney will not run for president in 2008. A serious effort to amend the constitution to allow foreign-born citizens to run will be made, but will not succeed, so Arnold won't run either. Edwards will run but won't win the Democratic primary.
- The Democratic candidate will win the 2008 election. By an extremely narrow margin.
- George W. Bush will still not be able to admit to making any real mistakes during his presidency. Saying "I made a mistake by appointing certain people" and other blame-shirking doesn't count.
(Update: changed "all time low" to "all time high" in euro prediction. I forgot which currency I was writing about momentarily.)
Additional predictions:
(11/06/2004):
- Bush will replace Rehnquist and one other Supreme Court justice. The balance of the court will shift to 6-3 conservative. Roe vs. Wade will be eroded slightly but not overturned. There will be many small but significant decisions from the Supreme Court which will make me and my friends unhappy.
(11/08/2004):
- No amendment or amendment-repeal to the Constitution will pass Congress. FMA will be pushed hard, but the GOP will be playing to lose so they can point at the Democrat's desire to destroy the institution of marriage. The Arnold Amendment won't be pushed as hard as FMA, but will at least come to a vote in the House. Repeal of the 22nd Amendment won't come to a vote. Nor repeal of the 13th, 15th, 19th, or 26th, for that matter.
(Update: changed 100,000 estimated Iraqi civilian deaths to 150,000. I had skimmed an article which mentioned the Lancet Study but didn't correctly get the gist of it.)
(11/23/04 Update: Over the weekend, 87 octane at the Reference Gas Station was $2.63 - welcome to San Francisco - so I upped my prediction for 2008 to $2.74. Like most of my predictions, it's a "things won't get better" rather than a "here comes the apocalypse.")
meriko just aimed me at Michael Moore's 17 Reasons Not to Slit Your Wrists.
Pandagon just pointed me towards a similar list of food-for-optimistic-thought over at Unfogged. (My answers aren't all optimistic ones, but they're good questions.)
I've been spending all morning going around in circles in my head. Thinking about causes, about alternate scenarios (...what if Dean? ...what if Kerry/Clark? ...what if Lieber-- no, a thousand times no.), about future scenarios (Obama won't be ready in 2008, even for VP, even if America is ready for him. America really isn't ready for Hillary, even for VP. Kerry and Edwards branded losers. Gore as the new Nixon, but no. Who have we got who's worth a damn?), about what we did right and what we didn't. About the only thing I can come up with is that I did too little too late -- but I'm glad that at least I did something.
I refuse to believe that 51% of the country is really, deep down, either evil or stupid. They're just locked into a loose cult where they only hear one thing, and they have trouble - like we all have trouble - holding conflicting ideas in their heads. It's easier for them to bow to the alpha dog than to analyze everything they hear. I'm guilty of the same thing in a slightly different way.
Hell. I forgot most of what I wanted to say.
Someone posted on Daily Kos: "Remembering what African-Americans faced in the 50s and 60s and how they overcame it provides a little perspective for our plight today." There's an awful lot of good discussion going on over at DKos today. It's a real community site (the diary system, where anyone can write posts and the cream of the crop goes to the front page, is extremely powerful), and it covers Democratic politics from top to bottom, and if you want to keep fighting for the next four years, you could do a lot worse than to select it as your home base on the web.
Things have been worse. Things have been better. The pendulum swings. The clock ticks. Progress is made on alternate Tuesdays, as the fortune cookie says.
My advice? For the rest of 2004, rest.
2005, we plan.
2006, we resume the fight and make some gains in Congress.
2007, we plan some more.
2008, we take some poor sonofabitch who is foolish enough to think he wants the job... and we elect that poor sonofabitch President.
We're calling Kerry voters in Ohio to remind them to vote. And blogging it!
7:30 PST - First calls. "Just calling to remind you to vote for John Kerry--" "Absolutely, there is no other man! We need to get that jackass out of office!" Thanks, Barbara in Ohio!
7:52 PST - Leaving lots of messages. Had one hang-up. No one has bitten my head off yet. Wasn't quite sure what to tell the young lady who asked if she was a registered voter, but I gave her the number for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections. Good luck, Amy in Ohio!
8:00 PST - MoveOn has the wrong number for one of these names, but the person on the other end is voting for Kerry anyway.
8:15 PST - Annoyed woman tells me I'm the third call from MoveOn in the last 45 minutes. Am mortified. Am switching to a different call list.
9:00 PST - Note that comments on the main page don't really work. Fix it.
9:24 PST - "Oh, she's not there? Well, are you a registered voter?" "Yes, and I already voted." "Did you vote for Kerry?" "He's the only one running, isn't he?" "The only one who matters, anyway, thank you, have a great day!"
9:30 PST - Robert calls a number - before he can say anything, he hears "I voted for Kerry already!" A few minutes later, someone answers one of my calls: "Lay it on me." "Um, I'm calling from MoveOn PAC..." "I already got a call from them, I voted three weeks ago, it's taken care of..." It's kind of frustrating that we're making duplicate calls, but at least people are on the "amused" side of annoyed rather than "enraged". At least, after I apologize repeatedly...
9:54 PST - meriko made a call and got "he's out at work, but the rest of us are about to go vote" -- SEVEN PEOPLE in the household are all going to go vote Kerry.
10:10 PST - Sure enough, MoveOn has acknowledged a problem with duplicate lists. Throw 'em away and get new ones. Kind of sucks to have spent 2 hours on redundant calls, but on the bright side our patter is now a little more polished. meriko's printing up a new set of numbers as I type. 158 numbers called, 46 voters reached, 6 man-hours.
10:45 PST - Floridans are a surly folk, compared to Ohioans. One guy claimed he was keeping track of how many calls he was getting for Bush and Kerry and would vote against whoever annoyed him with the most calls. Well, I guess there are worse ways to decide who to vote for. meriko says the Floridans she's talked to so far have been very nice. Hm. Also I got a very sarcastic outgoing greeting from one answering machine: "If you're a telemarketer, please leave a very long detailed message, because I really want to buy something from you."
11:30 PST - Forrest, Tammy, and Todd are here. meriko and I each took a turn running around the corner to our polling place. It's crowded but moving right along over there. Poll workers are surly too. Forrest isn't surly, though. For the record. 90-some-odd people are queued up at the MoveOn site trying to get new sets of numbers. It's nuts. We're leaving a lot of messages.
11:45 PST - "This is David's father, he already went out and voted for Kerry. We're gonna make it, my friend."
12:00 PST - My first rabid Bushie. "I wouldn't vote for that slob if he was the only one running, Kerry's gonna get us into more wars (!) and raty rant rant rant..." "Okay thank you" "...ranty rant McRant rant rant..." "Okay thank you" "...rant rant rant." "Thanks, bye!"
12:35 PST - "You've reached the Smith residence, we aren't here right now, but please leave a message with our cats, as we've taught them to speak english." Tammy: "Hello kitties, this is Tammy from MoveON PAC's campaign in Florida. Would you please tell John and Jenny to be sure to vote today, and please suggest to them that they vote for John Kerry."
1:00 PST - We are joined by three friends of Forrest's. We eat lunch.
1:35 PST - "She doesn't vote, she's had a stroke." "Oh my goodness, I'm very sorry. Are you a registered voter?" "Yes, and I already voted for Bush today." "Well, okay, thank you and have a good evening."
2:10 PST - meriko calls someone on our registered voter list who didn't know today was election day. We hook him up with his local polling place. He doesn't know much but knows he doesn't like Bush. Most of our calls are to answering machines or to people who have already voted or were planning to vote already, but this is a winner.
3:15 PST - "You're a little late, the polls close at 7. But I already voted." Uhhhh okay. (7pm in FL is 4pm here.) <erin-brockovich>I'm really quite tired.</erin-brockovich>
3:30 PST - "Okay, I'm gonna find some more Democrats!" "I'm gonna find more guys living under a rock!"
Somewhere in there I talked to a woman who stood in line for three hours to vote -- on Friday! Madness!
4:40 PST - "I'm a volunteer with MoveOn Political Ac--" "Fuck you!" (click) Have a good evening, sir.
5:00ish - A little old lady tells me "she doesn't want to" vote. "Um, okay, well, John Kerry needs your vote, so if you can manage to get out it would be appreciated, but if not, okay, have a great evening."
5:15 PST - A guy, while fumbling to slam the phone down, yelling to his wife "one of those political assholes..." Did I mention I'm tired?
5:40 PST - "I'm from Move On Political Action Committee, and--" "I only have one thing to say to you. You ready? --blaaaaaaaaaazzzzzzzzzzzzz--" (party horn noise) "Well okay, have a good evening."
6:30 PST - "Can I ask who you voted for?" "I voted for Bush." "Well, that's not what I wanted to hear, but thank you for voting anyway." "Haa haa, nanny-nanna boo-boo!" (In a good natured sort of way)
6:45 PST - We're closing up the shop here. Final count: 1349 calls, 445 humans reached, 50 person-hours of phone calls. Rock the fuck on. 11 different people on our staff through the day.
And now we wait.
The Rude Pundit is almost too rude. Almost.
Karl Rove's gay leather slave is weary...
So I've been reading electoral-vote.com religiously (along with the Meta-Analysis of State Polls site) trying to figure out how the election's going to play out. A day or two ago, the owner of electoral-vote dropped a hint that he was going to reveal his identity soon. He did it today.
It's Andrew Tanenbaum.
The Andrew Tanenbaum who wrote "Operating Systems: Design and Implementation". The Andrew Tanenbaum who wrote Minix. The Andrew Tanenbaum who told Linus Torvalds: "Writing a new OS only for the 386 in 1991 gets you your second 'F' for this term. But if you do real well on the final exam, you can still pass the course."
Funny old world.
You know, even if we do lose - and I'm calling it 52-47 and 300 EV for Kerry - I'll be able to sleep at night.
UPDATE:
Election Eve, 10:45 Pacific Time, Nov. 1. My final prediction, 51-48, 300 EV. Like anyone cares.